2026 property forecast: prices tipped to rise again, but the winners are changing

Most outlooks point to 6–10% national growth, with Perth, Brisbane and Darwin in the box seat while Sydney and Melbourne move slower from a high base.

Every property chat in Australia is circling the same question right now: does 2026 keep the momentum going, or is this where the market finally takes a breather?

The short version from most major forecasts is this: prices are still expected to rise nationally, just without that chaotic “everything goes up at once” energy. It’s a market that’s still moving forward, but it’s doing it with more split personalities city to city, and sometimes suburb to suburb.

National prices: growth is still the base case

Across the big outlooks, the common range for national dwelling price growth in 2026 sits around 6–10%. That’s not a crash narrative. It’s also not a promise of easy money. It’s a signal that the market, on balance, is still being pulled upward by the same forces we’ve lived with for years: too few homes, strong demand, and population growth that doesn’t politely wait for construction timetables.

It also comes after a seriously strong run since late 2020. In places like Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, the compounding over several years has been the real story. If you bought early in the upswing, the numbers can make you feel like a genius even if you simply bought something solid and held on.

If you’re still saving, those same charts feel less like a win and more like the finish line moving away.

Rents and vacancy: still tight, still tense

On the rental side, the theme is familiar: vacancy rates stay painfully low, and rents keep getting pushed higher in most capitals. When there aren’t enough rentals available, tenants compete harder, leases get snapped up faster, and landlords gain pricing power.

But there’s a catch that’s starting to show up more often: affordability ceilings. Some markets can be tight and still struggle to lift rents further because households have reached the limit of what they can pay. Adelaide is a good example in the article’s framing, where demand is strong but rent growth can flatten because wages haven’t kept pace.

That tug of war matters, because rents don’t just impact tenants. They also feed into what investors can hold, what buyers can justify, and how confident people feel paying today’s prices.

The markets the forecasts keep circling

Perth: the second wind story

Perth keeps popping up near the top of 2026 growth lists. The article paints a simple picture: tight supply, strong demand, very low vacancy, and thin listings. When there isn’t much stock for sale or rent, competition becomes the market.

Add in population growth and a resources and energy backdrop that supports incomes, and you’ve got the ingredients for another strong year. Even after years of gains, Perth is still described as “cheap” compared with parts of the east coast, which helps explain why investors keep scanning it for the next run.

Brisbane: expensive now, still supported

Brisbane has quietly shifted from “affordable alternative” to “serious money” in plenty of suburbs, especially for houses. Even so, forecasts are still leaning positive into 2026 rather than calling a flat spell.

The article points to a mix of support factors: ongoing population inflows, tight rentals, and the long lead-up to the 2032 Olympics, which underpins infrastructure spend and jobs sentiment. The question hanging over Brisbane is whether it can keep stepping up without buyers simply hitting their borrowing limits. That’s where broad city headlines can mislead, because some pockets will hold up far better than others.

Darwin: high yield, higher mood swings

Darwin gets described with a very investor-style appeal: higher yields, tightening vacancy, rising rents, and a project pipeline that can bring workers and demand.

It also comes with a clear warning label. Darwin is smaller and can turn faster than the big capitals. That doesn’t make it “bad”. It makes it a market you treat with respect. If you want stability, you size your risk properly. If you want upside, you accept that the ride can be bumpier.

Solid climbers: still in the conversation

Adelaide: tight rentals, tenants at the limit

Adelaide remains one of the tightest rental markets, with vacancy under serious pressure in many areas. That usually supports prices, because it signals demand is outpacing supply.

The twist is rent growth can stall even in a tight market when tenants can’t stretch further. So Adelaide can still grow, but the top-end forecasts may be harder to hit if affordability keeps biting.

Hobart and regional Tasmania: signs of life after a pause

Hobart is positioned as a market that had its moment, cooled off, then started showing early signals again as rents jump and vacancy tightens.

The article also nods to regional centres like Launceston and Devonport, where prices can be lower and yields can look more workable for buyers who feel locked out of the big capitals. It’s not a “buy anything” pitch. It’s more like: if you’re selective, there may be opportunity where others stopped looking.

Gold Coast: lifestyle demand meets limited supply

The Gold Coast sits at the intersection of lifestyle, migration and infrastructure upgrades. Growth may cool compared with the last few years, but the article still frames it as a market to watch, especially where there’s limited stock under key price points and strong demand from downsizers and investors.

Sydney and Melbourne: slower, but still moving

Sydney: modest growth off a massive base

Most forecasts have Sydney in mid single-digit growth territory for 2026. That might sound boring until you remember Sydney’s price base. A few per cent on a very expensive market still translates into big dollars.

The core issue is undersupply in well-located areas. Building takes time, approvals take time, and demand doesn’t pause. At the same time, borrowing capacity is a hard ceiling for many buyers. That means Sydney can keep rising, but it often does it in grinding phases rather than explosive bursts.

Melbourne: a long-game market, with traps

Melbourne is framed as a more modest 2026 story overall, helped by higher levels of supply in some parts of the city. That extra building activity can keep a lid on prices and rents in oversupplied segments, especially where there’s heavy apartment stock.

The opportunity, as described, is in being choosy. Well-located houses and quality townhouses in established suburbs can still outperform the city average, while some pockets may lag. Melbourne’s pitch is time: if you’re thinking 10–20 years, it can still stack up, but you don’t want to buy blindly.

What could shift the 2026 call

Forecasts are only as good as their assumptions, and the article calls out three big levers.

First, interest rates and credit rules. If rate cuts arrive sooner or go further than expected, that can add fuel, especially in rate-sensitive markets like Sydney and Melbourne. If rates stay higher for longer, or lending tightens, the strain shows up first where affordability is already stretched.

Second, migration, population growth and incomes. Strong population growth without enough new homes keeps pressure on both prices and rents. If migration slows or income growth weakens, you can get a cooler market without necessarily getting falling prices.

Third, housing supply and construction costs. Costs, labour shortages, approvals and project delays all slow delivery. Even if policy settings improve, new supply doesn’t appear overnight. It’s a multi-year fix, which is why the near-term pressure hasn’t magically disappeared.

The practical takeaway: use forecasts, don’t worship them

The article lands on a grounded message: 2026 looks more like “continued growth” than “sudden crash”, with the strongest expectations around Perth, Brisbane and Darwin, and steadier gains elsewhere. But nobody gets a guaranteed outcome.

If you want to stay sane while headlines swing between boom and bust, focus on a few reality checks through the year: vacancy rates, rent trends, listings volumes, days on market, lending changes, and local job conditions. Those signals will tell you faster than a glossy forecast when a market is heating up, cooling off, or simply shifting to a new gear.